Fuzzy-based ensemble methodology for accurate long-term prediction and interpretation of extreme significant wave height events
César Peláez-Rodríguez 
Jorge Pérez-Aracil 
Antonio Manuel Gómez-Orellana 
David Guijo-Rubio 
Víctor Manuel Vargas-Yun 
Pedro Antonio Gutiérrez 
César Hervás-Martínez 
Sancho Salcedo-Sanz Applied Ocean Research
OCEANOGRAPHY
Abstract
Providing an accurate prediction of Significant Wave Height (SWH), and specially of extreme SWH events, is crucial for coastal engineering activities and holds major implications in several sectors as offshore renewable energy. With the aim of overcoming the challenge of skewness and imbalance associated with the prediction of these extreme SWH events, a fuzzy-based cascade ensemble of regression models is proposed. This methodology allows to remarkably improve the predictive performance on the extreme SWH values, by using different models specialised in different ranges on the target domain. The method’s explainability is enhanced by analysing the contribution of each model, aiding in identifying those predictor variables more characteristic for the detection of extreme SWH events. The methodology has been validated tackling a long-term SWH prediction problem, considering two case studies over the southwest coast of the United States of America. Both reanalysis data, providing information on various meteorological factors, and SWH measurements, obtained from the nearby stations and the station under examination, have been considered. The goodness of the proposed approach has been validated by comparing its performance against several machine learning and deep learning regression techniques, leading to the conclusion that fuzzy ensemble models perform much better in the prediction of extreme events, at the cost of a slight deterioration in the rest of the samples. The study contributes to advancing the SWH prediction field, specially, to understanding the behaviour behind extreme SWH events, critical for various sectors reliant on oceanic conditions.
Keywords
BibTex Citation
@article{Pelaez2024Fuzzy,
author = {Pel{\' a}ez-Rodr{\' i}guez, C{\' e}sar and P{\' e}rez-Aracil, Jorge and G{\' o}mez-Orellana, Antonio Manuel and Guijo-Rubio, David and Vargas-Yun, V{\' i}ctor Manuel and Guti{\' e}rrez, Pedro Antonio and Herv{\' a}s-Mart{\' i}nez, C{\' e}sar and Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho},
journal = {Applied Ocean Research},
doi = {10.1016/j.apor.2024.104273},
year = {2024},
pages = {104273},
title = {Fuzzy-based ensemble methodology for accurate long-term prediction and interpretation of extreme significant wave height events},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2024.104273},
howpublished = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2024.104273},
volume = {153},
}
BibTex Unicode Citation
@article{Pelaez2024Fuzzy,
author = {Peláez-Rodríguez, César and Pérez-Aracil, Jorge and Gómez-Orellana, Antonio Manuel and Guijo-Rubio, David and Vargas-Yun, Víctor Manuel and Gutiérrez, Pedro Antonio and Hervás-Martínez, César and Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho},
journal = {Applied Ocean Research},
doi = {10.1016/j.apor.2024.104273},
year = {2024},
pages = {104273},
title = {Fuzzy-based ensemble methodology for accurate long-term prediction and interpretation of extreme significant wave height events},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2024.104273},
howpublished = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2024.104273},
volume = {153},
}
APA Citation
Peláez-Rodríguez, C., Pérez-Aracil, J., Gómez-Orellana, A. M., Guijo-Rubio, D., Vargas-Yun, V. M., Gutiérrez, P. A., Hervás-Martínez, C., & Salcedo-Sanz, S. (2024). Fuzzy-based ensemble methodology for accurate long-term prediction and interpretation of extreme significant wave height events. Applied Ocean Research, 153, 104273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2024.104273
RIS Citation
TY - JOUR
AU - Peláez-Rodríguez, César
AU - Pérez-Aracil, Jorge
AU - Gómez-Orellana, Antonio Manuel
AU - Guijo-Rubio, David
AU - Vargas-Yun, Víctor Manuel
AU - Gutiérrez, Pedro Antonio
AU - Hervás-Martínez, César
AU - Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho
DA - 2024///
PY - 2024
DO - 10.1016/j.apor.2024.104273
ID - temp_id_981571235839
SP - 104273
T2 - Applied Ocean Research
TI - Fuzzy-based ensemble methodology for accurate long-term prediction and
interpretation of extreme significant wave height events
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2024.104273
VL - 153
ER -
CV Citation
C. Peláez-Rodríguez, J. Pérez-Aracil, A.M. Gómez-Orellana, D. Guijo-Rubio, V.M. Vargas-Yun (CA), P.A. Gutiérrez, C. Hervás-Martínez, S. Salcedo-Sanz (5/8). "Fuzzy-based ensemble methodology for accurate long-term prediction and interpretation of extreme significant wave height events". Applied Ocean Research, Vol. 153, pp. 104273, 2024. (Q1D1, IF: 4.4).